Model Picks only

The record.

We keep one record: Model Picks, each recorded before kick-off and settled win or lose at the price it was posted at. It lives in the football bot, which works it out afresh every time you open it and shows how many picks every number rests on, with the range of results it is consistent with.

Read the record in the bot →

Free, no subscription. If the bot opens on its welcome screen, send /scorecard. Every correction we have made is under /corrections.

What counts

Model Picks: singles on match markets where our model's estimate of the chance is higher than the bookmaker's price implies. That is an estimate, not a proven advantage, and the record is how we test it. A pick only counts if it was recorded before kick-off.

What doesn't

Short-priced High Probability picks, player props, newer markets, strategies and the racing bot's selections are outside this record. The bot labels them, and we don't fold them into the Model Pick figures.

How each pick is settled

At the price it was posted at, 1 unit flat: won, lost or void. Losses count exactly like wins. The record states the date it counts from, and /record in the bot explains why the earlier record was withdrawn.

Why there's no headline figure on this page

A percentage on its own hides how many bets it rests on. The record is still too small to tell skill from luck, so this page doesn't print a profit figure or a strike rate. The bot shows them with the number of picks and the range of results beside them.

How to read a record. ROI is profit divided by the total staked at 1 unit per pick: it is not a return on your bankroll. A strike rate and an ROI answer different questions, and a high strike rate at short prices can still lose money. The range matters more than either: while it includes zero, the record has not shown a profit. Past results do not predict future results.
Read the record in the bot →